Wednesday, 31 October 2012

American Real Estate Investors Seek Opportunities in European Debt Crisis

While the world is anxiously watching to see how the European debt crisis will unfold, many real estate investors in the United States are eagerly seeking opportunities to reap profits from the Continent’s distress.
The asset sales in Europe could dwarf the work of the United States Resolution Trust Corporation, which was charged with disposing of the troubled mortgages resulting from the savings and loan crisis of the 1980s, said Russell Platt, the chief executive of Forum Partners Europe, an investment firm with headquarters in London. “Most of the firms looking at this came of age during the R.T.C.,” Mr. Platt said. “You can see why a lot of folks are rubbing their hands and saying: ‘This could be very interesting.’ ” 
Private equity firms, whose investors include pension funds, university endowments and foundations, have been vying to buy portfolios of European bank debt consisting of troubled commercial real estate mortgages. By acquiring these loans at deep discounts, they hope eventually to earn generous returns of 12 to 18 percent, investors and advisers say.
As the sovereign debt crisis continues, European banks are expected to sell such distressed assets in an effort to increase their capital and protect against future losses. Morgan Stanley estimates that such institutions may have to cut their exposure to commercial real estate by up to $760 billion. 
Commercial mortgage-backed securities, real estate loans that are packaged together and sold to investors, are not as common in Europe as in the United States. Instead, most European mortgages remained on the banks’ books, which has been a drag on profits.
“Getting the banks healthy is critical for getting the European economy healthy again,” said Gifford S. West, head of European operations for DebtX, a loan-sale advisory firm.
In 2011, CBRE, the giant real estate company, tracked more than 20 European loan portfolio sales with a value of 20 billion euros (about $26 billion at current exchange rates). The pace so far this year has dropped, with 14 transactions totaling 7.5 billion euros. Another 11 billion euros’ worth of loans are currently being marketed, CBRE said. Many individual loan sales are also taking place in private.
So far, the pace of sales has been modest. Last year, the region’s institutions received an infusion of capital from the European Central Bank, easing the pressure to trim their balance sheets. 
Consequently, banks have been slower than expected to put their bad loans on the market and write down their losses. “We all sort of thought there would be a greater flow of deals,” Ms. Ricks said.
But in Europe, at least, no one these days expects the values of mediocre properties to rise without efforts to improve them physically or manage them better, said James Wallace, who writes a trade blog on European debt for the CoStar Group, a research company in Washington. “Extend and pretend is over,” he said. “People don’t say that anymore in Europe.”
As a result, participants in this market expect the pace of loan portfolio sales to accelerate. “We anticipate the next 24 to 36 months to be busier than the last 12 months,” said Graham Martin, the London-based global leader of KPMG’s portfolio solutions group, which advises banks on these transactions.

Monday, 29 October 2012

Advice for New Investors

I would like to give some advice to new investors.
Don’t Be Greedy
I started with a small amount of money. Naturally, I wanted to grow that money quickly. I thought I should earn 50% a year like Warren Buffett said he could do with less than $1 million. I’m dazzled by Peter Lynch’s idea of 10-baggers. That’s fine if you stick to their teachings. But my greed led me to compromise on quality of business. Statistical cheapness blinded me and persuaded me that the business is fine.
So, I think for starters, no matter how small the amount of money you have, the priority is always to protect principal, not to grow money quickly.
I think a diversified portfolio of statistically cheap stocks can be fine. But you can’t achieve adequate diversification with a small amount of money. So you should focus on quality of business. Personally, I’m comfortable with buying only one great company.
Invest Like You’re Saving for Retirement
My attitude toward stock investing is like saving for my retirement. I don’t plan to use any money I put into my portfolio in the next 30 years. That frees me from the concern about volatility. I can totally ignore market price. Once I find the right stock at the right price, I’ll buy. And I want the stock price to keep going down. So I can buy the stock cheaper whenever I have more money or the company can repurchase shares cheaply.
I think this is the advantage of individual investors. Money managers with the wrong clients have to pay a lot more attention to short-term performance. You don’t have that restriction if you add money to your fund with no plan to use the money soon. Think like you’re saving for your retirement.
Investing is a Learning Process
Buying inactivity is also a result of my research process. My process was initially started with screening for statistically cheap candidates.
The disadvantage of this approach is that I’m influenced by fluctuations in the stock market. There can be the pressure to do research quickly. I can be afraid that the stock price will go up and I will miss an opportunity. But rushing a research always results in an inadequate analysis.
Also, valuing a stock when we know the stock price isn’t a good idea. We’ll be influenced by the anchoring idea. It’s like when you ask people if a Big Mac provides more or less than 1,200 calories, most people will say less. When you ask them how many, they would say “1021.” If you instead ask if there are more or less than 500 calories in a Big Mac, they’ll say more. And when you ask them how many, they’ll say something like “715.” There’s a high chance that our stock valuation would significantly differ when we know the stock price is $60 from when we know the stock price is $15.
So, I think intelligent investors will do research without the impulse to buy a stock. They learn about the business, expand their circle of competence. They get ready to make a decision when the market price is cheap relative to their idea about the value of the company.
Geoff often tells me that his greatest investments are those in companies that he learned about before and then 5 years later, something happened to the stock price.
Don’t Rush to Buy
I used to have a lot of ideas when I started. I always had new ideas even when I was already fully invested. But it wasn’t that I was smarter or those were good days. Those ideas were simply junk. Those were just beliefs of an inexperienced investor. I was influenced by numerous human misjudgment tendencies.
I started reading investment books in those days. I learned techniques to value a stock and how to do research. I was overeager to apply what I had just learned. Perhaps buying a stock meant becoming an investor or mastering what I had learned. Therefore, most of my early researches were inadequate. But I ignored those shortcomings and believed that I had good ideas.
My advice here is to limit yourself to buying only one stock in the first year. That will delay your buying decision and force you into following your stocks longer and comparing investment candidates. That will also save you the opportunity cost of buying the wrong company.
Don’t worry about having cash that is not working. Assuming you wait 2 years to buy a stock that would double in 3 years, you still earn 14%. And 14% is an admirable rate of return for any investor.
Write Down All Your Thoughts about a Company
Finally, I used to have problems with following some stocks I did research on. Many times I read my own research after a while, and I realized how incomplete my reports were. Many questions arose while I read the reports. But when I did some research to answer those questions, I realized I already knew the answers before.I think that’s because I’m not a good writer. I couldn’t turn all my thoughts into a concise, comprehensive report. My solution is that if I can’t write a report, I’ll take notes. I have a checklist including questions about a company to answer. And for each question, I just write down every thesis and all the evidence and then organize them into a draft. I also write down all questions that I can’t answer with my current knowledge as well as hypotheses about the company. It’ll take more time for me to read all my notes in the future, but at least, I can record all my thoughts about a company and follow them in the future.
So, I think buying inactivity, focusing on business quality, learning, taking notes, and investing like saving for retirement are the ingredients for intelligent investing.




Friday, 26 October 2012

Ten Commandments for Buying Gold and Silver


  1. Never buy premium if you can avoid it.
  2. Buy silver first, then gold.
  3. Never buy exotic coins or modern rarities or anything you don't understand.
  4. What governments can't find, they can't steal.
  5. Never break the law.
  6. Always take delivery.
  7. Buy bullion for business, numismatics for fun.
  8. Buy small gold first, then large.
  9. Know your dealer.
  10. Never swap bullion coins for U.S. $20 gold pieces.

FOUR BULLION PORTFOLIOS

Please note that our recommendations vary depending on your concerns and the market. If you want to invest in gold and silver to protect your assets and have something easily divisible and spend-able to hedge currency depreciation or collapse, then:
For $75,000 buy
Two-thirds US 90% silver coin or 1oz. Silver Rounds; $5,000 worth of Sovereigns, 20 Francs, or 1/4 Eagles; the balance in Krugerrands, American Eagles, Mexican 50 Pesos or Austrian 100 Coronas. (For over $75,000 simply do multiples of this portfolio.)
For $25,000 buy
Two-thirds US 90% silver coin or 1oz. Silver Rounds; half of the remaining third in Sovereigns, French 20 Francs, or 1/4 oz. American Eagles; and the balance in one oz. Krugerrands, Austrian 100 Coronas, Mexican 50 Pesos, or American Eagles.
For $10,000 buy
Two-thirds US 90% silver coin or 1oz. Silver Rounds, with the balance divided between a fractional coin like British Sovereigns, French 20 Francs, Mexican Pesos (10, 5, 2.5, or 2) AND Krugerrands, Austrian 100 Coronaes or Mexican 50 Pesos.
If you have $5,000 or less to spend
At least half in silver (either US 90% silver coin or 1oz. Silver Rounds) and half in British Sovereigns, French 20 Francs, Mexican Pesos (10, 5, 2.5 or 2) or some other inexpensive, fractional gold coin.

If you want to invest in precious metals to simply protect your assets and don’t think you’ll ever need to actually barter with them, then:
For $75,000
Get bags of US 90% silver or 1oz. Silver Rounds for 2/3 of your order; the balance in Krugerrands, American Eagles, 100 Coronas, or 50 Pesos. (For over $75,000 simply do multiples of this portfolio.)
For $5,000 through $25,000
Put at least half of your money in US 90% silver coin or 1oz. Silver Rounds; the rest in one ounce Krugerrands or American Eagles, or in Austrian 100 Coronas or Mexican 50 Pesos.
If you have $5,000 or less to spend
Half in US 90% silver coin or 1oz. Silver Rounds, half in one ounce Krugerrands or American Eagles, Austrian 100 Coronas, or Mexican 50 Pesos.

Wednesday, 24 October 2012

How I Find Stocks – Then and Now


Quan here.
The way I find new stocks to research has changed over time. My approach changed from greedy to aggressive to curious and finally to practical.
For the story of another investor and blogger’s change from mechanical screening to human screening – read Richard Beddard’s blog post about his Human Screen.
This is my story.
Greedy and Aggressive
I used to think that good investors can make 50% annual return. I had read a quote from Warren Buffett saying this was true. This was before I knew anything about investing. So I wanted to find stock like that. Stocks that could return 50% a year. So, I looked for companies with low P/E, and a big drop in the share price from its past peak. If I found some famous value investors holding it, I’d start analyzing the company
Curious
I didn’t know when I realized my mistake. It’s not like I had a terrible experience with the first stocks I bought. I never lost 90% of my money in some value trap. But, for some reason, my process for finding new stocks to research started to change. Perhaps I changed the way I looked for stocks after exchanging emails with Geoff. I sold a lot of stocks I owned after talking with Geoff.
So, I decided to expand my circle of competence. I ignored stock price, and started my learning experience. I wanted to learn about how companies actually make money. I did research on companies without any intention to buy those stocks. I thought I just need to gain understanding of companies. One day in the future, something might happen to the stock price and I could quickly decide whether to buy. And I wanted to give priority to better businesses.
I then took a quick look at 10-year results at MSN money. I looked at balance sheet to see whether the business require high capital investment. I looked at earnings and cash flow to make a quick calculation about profitability. If my feeling was that the company is profitable, I would start doing further research.
As a result of using screener with only one variable (profit margin), I jumped randomly from an industry to another. One disadvantage is that I usually started my research with completely no familiarity with the company. But the advantage is that I expanded my knowledge. I studied about sports and entertainment and a little bit about cable network after analyzing WWE. I studied some medical device companies likes.
Landauer (LDR) and Masimo (MASI). I analyzed IT service companies like Ebix.
As my knowledge widened, I sometimes found companies in business close to the businesses I already know. For example, ISCA is similar to WWE. Bio-reference (BRLI) is nowhere similar to MASI but they both provide tests. Netflix can be seen as similar to ESPN or a cable operator.
Practical
My approach now is more practical. It’s now more about finding a stock to buy than finding a business to learn about. I have a checklist to decide whether to do research on a company. Whenever I see some company names on the street, on a blog, or anywhere, I’ll run the checklist to see if I’m interested in analyzing the company.
I’m more interested in obscure companies with special, unique products. I like hidden champions with no analyst coverage. There can be higher chance that the stock is mispriced. And unique product can mean high profitability.
I want familiar companies or companies in familiar industries. My business knowledge is broader now than in the past. But I didn’t really expand my circle of competence. My knowledge is just a set of several disjointed points scattered over the business space. But that’s a good start. I’ll now expand the points into circles. I’ll start with companies I’m familiar with.
Finally, I like companies with stable demand. To me, it’s just impossible to estimate the normal earning power of a company without stable demand.
So, that’s my qualitative screen. I don’t screen stocks by any metrics. If I know a company scores well on some metrics, I can start my research with some bias. And I don’t pay attention to price. I just look for some companies that I can own, and wait for someday to buy






Monday, 22 October 2012

22 Investing Books in One Word Each

 Last time, I was asked to describe each investor in one word each . This time, I will describe investment books in one word each.  
 #1 Security Analysis: Comprehensive This is the first investing book I read. Without any experience, I did not grasp all the ideas. However, I found Ben Graham’s ideas in most books I read later. That’s why I think if one has the chance to read only read, I would suggest Security Analysis .
#2 Common Stock and Uncommon Profits: Perfect I used to focus more on business as Buffett said he want companies that can be run by idiots. I now realize that for a long-term investment, people factors are very important. In my search for perfect investments, I found a great framework in Common Stock and Uncommon Profits . If we analyze a company and all answers to Phil Fisher’s 15 questions are positive, I think it is very likely that we’ve found a perfect investment.
#3 The Intelligent Investor: Defensive I read The Intelligent Investor not long after Security Analysis. I felt that Ben Graham wanted to devise a system for average investor. He spent a big part of the book talking about the approach defensive investor. So, my impression of the book is defensive.
#4 Value Investing: From Graham to Buffett and Beyond: Simplify Geoff has a different view. He thinks Bruce Greenwald makes value investing more complicated in this book. I agree with him in the sense that Bruce Greenwald is an economist and he wants to describe value investing in formula. But I think that formulas help newbies see the approach of value investing more clearly. That can be misleading though.
#5 The Aggressive Conservative Investor: Disagree Martin Whitman said that small investors should buy a stock at the hope of someone buying out later. Therefore, he looks at private owner value. I have a different view. Warren Buffett buys a whole company but never change the management. I see no difference between buying a share of a company and buying the whole company if we trust the management and capital allocation. Therefore, I value a company as something to hold it forever, not as something that other people will buy at a higher price.
 #6 You Can Be a Stock Genius: Intelligent I described Joel Greenblatt as “tricky.” Intelligent can be a better word. What’s the better word to describe his tactics to take advantage of special situations?
#7 The Curse of Mogul: Media This is a good book about in the media industry. The book talks about competitive advantage in the whole media value chain. It focuses on the idea that the value of media companies is in their distribution and challenges the conventional belief that “content is king”.

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